From the May Edition of the Delta Sun Times.
Note to Readers: Yes I know it is a bit long and even detailed. This is about YOUR money. It is much simpler just to go along with the program than learn a new one. If you are the person that goes into a car dealership, picks the car (by color) and happily pays the price on the window sticker, you are excused from class. For full impact click this link and listen while you read. It will open in a separate window, click play and then click back to the first tab to read.
Looking for Armageddon and finding Mayberry RFD!
Warning; if you want to think “the market” is getting ready to “come back” or “take off” anytime soon. Stop reading! If you think that Real Estate, as a business model, is etched in stone and unchanging (or you want it to be), take a deep breath and hang on. If you want to get a glimpse of the paradigm shift that is taking place all around you sit down and hang on.
Do you sometimes feel that the Real Estate Industry and their spokespersons are like a 1970’s talking doll? Pull the string and it says “Now is a great time to Buy!” or “Now is a great time to Sell!” Now is a great time to (fill in the blank)?
Second homes are becoming less desirable for most people due to pure economics. Three Quarters of a MILLION Dollars is a lot of money for a home that you spend a couple of weekends a month in, yes? While a small segment of our population can and will always continue to acquire multiple residences, most will not. Why? The initial cost, decreasing appreciation percentages and costs of maintenance and insurance and better investment vehicles in the current and foreseeable future is the short answer.
The Market will “come back”, but it will NOT look like what we remember in 2005/06. 37% appreciation on deep water homes in DB for two years straight was simply not sustainable. A bulb burns brightest just before it burns out. Late 2009 “may” see some stability in the market. But first, all of the REOs (bank owned properties) and short sales must clear out of the inventory. The current “absorption rate” in DB is 3-4 times longer than the “normal” 3 – 6 months. The people that were in the buying pipeline that were “used up” 2 -5 years early due to teaser rates must regain there financial footing (many lost their homes to foreclosure due to recasting interest rates and eventually owing more (way more) than the house was worth as the prices declined.
The current Real Estate industry is in MAJOR flux! New business models are popping up all the time, all across the planet (yes, the planet and showing up here). There are a number of pieces to this shift.
1) Let me use an analogy to describe how the internet is affecting Real Estate. Remember maybe 5 years ago (or certainly 10 years), when you could not walk down the street without passing a travel agency or even two, complete with mannequins in hula skirts, and tons of brochures all at eye level for the taking? Now we cannot find a traditional brick and mortar travel agency without a GPS device. Don’t people still travel? How on earth does all this traveling happen without a brick and mortar travel agency? I will use myself as an example. When I want to go to Hawaii (with which I am quite familiar) I log on to the United Airlines website, book my flights, select my seats, print out my boarding passes, book my rental car and hotel as well all while sipping coffee sitting at home in my fuzzy slippers (sorry for the visual). No travel agent involved. But what if I want to (someday) go on a European cruise? I will STILL go on-line, Google my little heart out, look at on-line brochures, lots of pretty pictures and get a good idea of the where, why and how’s. Then I will call my travel agent, who works in her home office in Sacramento (no brick and mortar travel office and probably in her fuzzy slippers), and tell her or email her my wishes and ideas. She will then (PAY ATTENTION HERE) Filter and Guide me in my plans based on her LOCAL/PRODUCT KNOWLEDGE, book the travel that we decide on, handle the contracts and send me my documents. This is exactly what is happening in the Real Estate industry today as the population fully incorporates the internet into its daily life. According to NAR 87% of Buyers and Sellers begin their search for homes or agents on the internet.
2) Brick and Mortar real estate offices are an expensive artifact of a system in decay. If an office costs say $20,000 in overhead just for rent, lights, phones etc then that must be paid from commissions earned by the office. These commissions come from the commission splits from the agents in the office. Typical splits for agents are between 50% for a newer agent to 80% or more for a seasoned top producer. This is one reason the “traditional” model attempts to justify commission rates that were appropriate in the 1950’s and have been perpetuated ever since. Many new models eliminate the brick and mortar office AND the commission split allowing the agents to keep 100% of the commission earned. What the agent does with that commission is up to them. I choose to give 50% back to Buyers (typically 1.5% of the purchase price i.e. $9000.00 on a $600K purchase). I also choose to set a Listing Side commission of 1% instead of the typical 3%. All agents must disclose that commissions are negotiable. None of my clients seem to think that my commissions still need to be negotiated. Technology allows me to provide FULL service without the expense of a brick and mortar office. I have clients come to my home office often for conferences, signings or just as a home base while looking at homes. We look at homes from the water leaving from my dock. We usually meet at subject properties, Title offices and Mortgage Brokers (sometimes HOME offices). I pass these savings back to my clients, both Sellers and Buyers.
3) Sellers pay the commissions, right? NO! Buyers ultimately pay the commissions for both sides of the sale because they are built into the price of the home! The commissions are paid out of the Sellers net proceeds, which is why this myth perpetuates. Yet Buyers have NO direct mechanism to negotiate the commission (they are ultimately paying) to their (Buyers) agent. Commission is offered by the Listing Broker to cooperating Brokers to bring Buyers through the MLS system (the original purpose of the MLS). Some states or MLS’s have been sued by the Dept. of Justice for attempting to limit commission rebates to Principals’ to the transaction. When I REBATE commission to a Buyer or Seller it is 100% legal, allowed by lenders (with some limits) and protected by the DOJ case law. This is completely different from giving a “finders fee” to a non-principal to the transaction which is and should be illegal. When MLS’s or agent lobbying groups or PACS try and push these limits through, who do you think they are protecting, and why? (Hint – a) its not the consumer and b) money). If I were to change the system, the Seller would pay the Listing Side commission and the Buyer would pay the Buyer Side commission, separately as part of the closing costs. Scary thought, what do you think the actual cost of the typical commission is to the Buyer when included in the purchase price and amortized over 30 years? $600K @ 6% total comm. @ 6.5% interest over 30 years = $81,918 total including $45,916 in interest. Hmmmmm…
4) AGENTS – get your Brokers License as soon as you have the required two years experience! A good tech based Brokerage will have more training and accessibility than the average brick & mortar operation. The Brokerage/Agent model is broken. Traditional brokerages are in business to make money for the owners, period. The agents that are required by law to “hang” their license are nothing more than tools to collect commissions from Buyers and Sellers for the brokerage. I was actually told by an office manager years ago that they would usually hire anybody new because the stats show that every new agent has 4+ sales in them due to friends and family. After that if they do not produce they fill the seat with another “newbie”. The Brokerages collect their “split” from the agents merely for the right to conduct business. Years in the business does not matter, experience does not matter; an licensed “agent” must hang his license with a Broker and cannot, by law, work for any other brokerage. As a Broker a person is prohibited by law from working “for” another Broker(age) only “with” another Broker(age). Getting your Brokers license does not mean you cannot be covered under Brokerages E&O insurance on a per transaction basis. An agent’s liability is just as high whether an “agent” or an independent “broker” when committing illegal acts. E&O insurance is inexpensive when compared to paying a huge split on every deal!
Area Pro Realty is a great example of this new paradigm. There are other good ones as well. A small monthly fee is paid in return for a complete technology suite ready to plug into instead of trying to design your own (and constantly update it). 100% commission to the agent, 0% split. Tools include training, technology and support. The agent/broker associate is now truly promoting him/herself as a BUSINESS, not a surrogate for a Brokerage.
One more point. All Brokerages must have a “Broker of Record”. This Broker, more times than not, is NOT the OWNER of the Brokerage, with some notable exceptions. The Owner’s are not required to hold any license whatsoever, let alone a Broker’s License. The Broker of Record is there to meet a legal requirement (in CA) and act as a buffer for the business if the business is sued and/or the Broker’s license is suspended or revoked due to some actions by the agents. If this happens, the Brokerage just pays some other person with a Broker’s License to step in and be the Broker of Record so business continues uninterrupted.
If the Internet has created a Brick & Mortar Armageddon, then WHY is (mainstream) Real Estate more like
Mayberry RFD then Jericho? (Jericho is the TV show about a post apocalyptic town starting over.) Simple answer really. Follow the money. The major Brokerages have invested MILLIONS of (YOUR) dollars building and maintaining a system to make themselves money. They invest heavily to lobby and maintain the status quo forcing agents to pay them to just to practice under their license and therefore maintain pressure on high commissions. Some Brokerages are limiting or denying their agents use of Blogs to build there own business. The theory seems to be to prevent their own agent from competing against them and forcing them onto the Corporate Blog in order to continue to build the Brokerage (not the agent doing the actual work or having actual ideas). We have not even touched Web 1.0 vs 2.0! Static information pushed at you vs interactive and blended content with actual information that you really need. I was at a Broker’s breakout session for a MAJOR Realtor.com (oops) website. They actually extolled the Broker’s to buy up the available zip codes and other area specific products and sell them back to the agents in their office both as a revenue stream and because “if the agents purchase these themselves, they can go anywhere with them and you lose control”.
In the book “8 Simple Secrets for small business owners” by Steven Hilferty and Tom Leal, one of the cogent rules is “If you can plan (or can see) your products own demise, than you can be the one to build the NEW one”. Amen!
I have simply set new rules for my clients and MY business. I have set a new standard of client care and I am not alone. If you go to www.bloodhoundblog.com or simply Google “disintermediation” you will get an eyeful. Pure Internet models are short on service and the old style brokerage houses which are long on commission and big on promoting themselves (as opposed to the agents actually doing the work) WILL be replaced by LOCAL, INDEPENDENT Brokers offering FULL Service with FAIR Commissions thereby actually benefiting their communities vs executing a previously profitable business model.
Kind of like living in Jericho, wearing fuzzy slippers…
Marston Myers
Broker Associate – Area Pro Realty